In 2024, more than 100,000 heat pumps were sold in Finland. According to Finnish Heat Pump Association SULPU statistics, the sales of heat pumps fell by 13.7% compared to the previous year. The decline in construction, the interest rate level, and, above all, the gloomy investment climate of the economy and households are slowing down household-related investments, including investments in heat pumps. Heat pump sales comprised a total of 85,000 air-to-air heat pumps, 7,000 air-to-water and ground source heat pumps each, and 1,900 exhaust air heat pumps. Ground source and exhaust air heat pumps in single-family houses suffered the most from the gloomy construction scenario. We are already seeing strong growth in large heat pumps in apartment and service buildings as replacement for district heating. Heat-pump-based solutions are rapidly becoming common also in the production of district and zone heating. There the transition from the combustion of fossil fuels and biomass is ongoing, utilising waste and ambient heat towards cleaner electric solutions. In 2024, the sales of heat pump systems exceeded EUR 600 million in Finland.
The outlook for the heat pump sector, however, is excellent. Already last autumn it started to look like the heat pump sector, after a couple of years of decline, will return to a growth path. Energy price increases and fluctuations as well as the demand for heating solutions that are as independent as possible are a plus for heat pumps. As a result of the increase in the price of oil, gas, district heating, and electricity, the profitability of heat pumps has continued to improve. Staggering electricity bills have taken many families by surprise, causing energy poverty even in Finland – a phenomenon much talked about in Europe. Heat pumps extract most of the energy of a house from around the building or from waste heat. This way, they mitigate the impact of price increases and fluctuations of delivered energy.
Now, more than ever, is a good time to undertake a heat pump project, as both pumps and installation capacity are available at a more negotiable price after the peak of 2022. Also, increased tax credit for household expenses, designed for replacing oil heating with a heat pump, will still be available for another couple of years, says Jussi Hirvonen, Executive Director of the Finnish Heat Pump Association SULPU.
Over the last few decades, more than 1.6 million heat pumps have been sold in Finland. This means that a market for replacing heat pumps with new and more efficient pumps is already well established. Today, a third of the sales of air to air heat pumps is made up of replacements. In Sweden, where the heat pump boom started well before it started in Finland, the heat pump replacement market share is now about 50%.
Heating is becoming electrified and heat pump sourced. To combat climate change, we must stop using fossil fuels, but in the long term, we must also stop combusting biofuels. In Finnish conditions, heat pumps are often the most practical and cost-effective solution for combustion-free transition. Using electricity, heat pumps can very effectively harness even low-temperature ambient and waste heat both for heating and cooling. Fortunately, electrification of heat is well under way in Finland. Just over EUR 9 billion has already been invested in the 1.6 million heat pumps installed in Finland. They now provide 15 TWh/a heating energy which means about 20 percent of the heating of buildings in Finland.
Last year, many European countries fell short of the heat pump sales of the peak year 2022, but tremendous growth is expected in the heat pump sector. Reaching an adequate level of electrification of heating, in line with EU’s FIT for 55 package and RePowerEU plan, requires 60 million heat pumps already in 2030. This means more than doubling the number of heat pumps in Europe – currently at 25 million – and the annual sales within six years. In comparison, the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that in 2050, a total of 1.8 billion heat pumps are needed in the world to help us stay on track to achieve the heating and cooling sector’s green transition objectives and those for combating climate change.
For further information, please contact: Finnish Heat Pump Association SULPU, www.sulpu.fi, Executive Director Jussi Hirvonen, tel. +358 50 500 2751, jussi.hirvonen@sulpu.fi.
Sales statistics and charts for 2024 are available via the link provided.
